Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 1056.064161 1202.732882 1367.920862 1568.830419 1808.032251 2085.515204 2434.391433
2025-05-11 836.166510 1025.872574 1260.836448 1577.668032 2000.619423 2555.908926 3357.494965
2025-05-18 738.803633 951.146535 1231.129345 1636.163043 2222.421862 3065.575253 4419.840948
2025-05-25 664.977544 888.925263 1199.190874 1674.369772 2410.158730 3554.742624 5577.569839
2025-06-01 601.618977 829.152944 1157.435812 1684.771589 2549.874946 3991.828839 6772.220824
2025-06-08 548.261346 775.393205 1114.645535 1682.663666 2663.469670 4404.120370 8046.435918
2025-06-15 513.328327 743.941571 1099.953705 1720.439617 2847.358764 4978.099123 9833.338876
2025-06-22 464.439373 685.285980 1034.653235 1662.169731 2846.625356 5199.376250 10939.594625
2025-06-29 424.182341 636.091903 978.822140 1611.628225 2849.566409 5425.854727 12141.772461
2025-07-06 387.880950 589.873685 922.928661 1552.984107 2825.479923 5587.902602 13245.532966
2025-07-13 375.531147 581.837978 930.887091 1613.211984 3052.786288 6367.516321 16403.247309
2025-07-20 358.401097 564.055501 919.656227 1634.538741 3201.013484 7000.922985 19470.510518
2025-07-27 341.429074 545.768112 906.862793 1653.627161 3354.682411 7711.898640 23306.714868
2025-08-03 324.706156 526.613753 890.754418 1664.263041 3493.070534 8433.863857 27739.305283
2025-08-10 315.892814 520.730256 898.754535 1726.700326 3770.516217 9651.601763 35244.627419
2025-08-17 305.223768 510.466020 897.095615 1767.588401 4003.049804 10826.910002 43808.185111
2025-08-24 292.261370 494.837250 883.206847 1778.718802 4159.396007 11820.302497 52632.737640
2025-08-31 279.062143 477.730338 864.682024 1776.463018 4278.744955 12738.938789 62274.304145
2025-09-07 270.926701 469.716457 864.035675 1816.897933 4531.829193 14272.801432 78454.218253
2025-09-14 254.247806 443.853919 823.729950 1754.533025 4462.577725 14511.356895 85465.762134
2025-09-21 239.591476 421.096063 788.310468 1700.469766 4409.770751 14808.405299 93655.124829
2025-09-28 225.305174 398.255447 751.079023 1637.775286 4318.721026 14915.037650 100526.922127
2025-10-05 222.180493 397.654502 762.186539 1702.163450 4659.051220 17149.627955 134337.888414